Pabout what scenario events can develop, the United States and NATO have transmitted their written responses to Russian proposals on security guarantees. In the main, they did not satisfy Moscow. What moves the parties can take next – in the material of RBC
How was the transmission of the US and NATO responses
On the evening of January 26, the United States and NATO gave Russia written answers to the demands put forward by it regarding security guarantees in Europe. The document prepared in Washington was brought to the Russian Foreign Ministry by US Ambassador John Sullivan, who handed it to Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko. As US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken explained to reporters, a copy of the document was also sent to Congress.
“The document we have submitted includes the concerns of the United States and its allies and partners regarding Russia’s actions that undermine security, an assessment of the topics of concern to Russia, in essence, and our own ideas in areas where we could find common ground,” Blinken said.
Among the areas where discussion is possible, the Secretary of State highlighted the deployment of offensive missile systems in Ukraine, military exercises and maneuvers in Europe, potential arms control measures, a higher level of transparency and various risk reduction measures. Blinken also noted that Washington does not intend to publish the document,because they believe that diplomacy has a better chance of success under the condition of confidential negotiations. Washington expects the same from Moscow. In the coming days, according to Blinken, he is scheduled to have a conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The decision on how to respond remains with Russia, the United States is ready for all scenarios, the Secretary of State stressed.
“We are open to dialogue, we prefer diplomacy, and we are ready to move forward where there is an opportunity for communication and cooperation, if Russia chooses to de-escalate its aggression against Ukraine, stop provocative rhetoric and move towards dialogue about future security in Europe,” Blinken summed up. He also reiterated that Washington will not abandon the policy of “open doors” of NATO.
The response of the North Atlantic Alliance was transmitted to the Russian Ambassador in Brussels, Alexander Tokovinin, after which NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a press conference on this occasion. He said that NATO will continue to adhere to the policy of “open doors” and will respect any choice of Ukraine. “We have made it clear that we will not compromise on our main principles, and one of them is that any country has the right to choose its own path,” he said.
Stoltenberg named three areas in which the alliance could interact with Russia, namely: the restoration of offices in Moscow and Brussels, the establishment of contacts between the military and the creation of a civilian emergency line; dialogue on European security; efforts to reduce risks, increase transparency and arms control.
Stoltenberg, in particular, mentioned holding joint briefings within the framework of the Russia —NATO Council, to which the parties could go. Finally, the NATO Secretary General called on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, where, according to him, they are against the will of these countries.
The statements of Blinken and Stoltenberg were expected. Earlier, Bloomberg, citing an EU diplomat, reported that the United States in its response to Russian demands is unlikely to give a concrete answer, but will name areas in which the United States and its allies are ready to meet Russia halfway. It was also expected that the United States would point out to Moscow those of its actions that alarm NATO allies in Europe. The expert community was also confident that Washington and Brussels would not be able to meet Moscow’s main demands, in particular about the non-expansion of NATO to the east.
What were Moscow’s first comments
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Thursday that, in his opinion, the American response to Russian proposals will soon become known to the public. “As for the content of the response, I think it will become known to the general public in the very near future, because, as our American colleagues told us, although they prefer that the document remain for confidential diplomatic dialogue, but it is agreed with all US allies and with the Ukrainian side. Therefore, I have no doubt that in the very near future it will “leak”,” Lavrov explained.
According to him, the American response allows us to count on the beginning of a serious conversation, but about secondary issues. “There is no positive reaction on the main issue in this document,” the minister admitted. He recalled that Moscow’s main demand is not to expand NATO to the east and to deploy strike weapons in such territories that could threaten Russia. Lavrov added that the responses received from the United States and NATO will be considered in a complex, and after interdepartmental coordination they will be reported to the President of Russia. He will decide on the next steps.
The press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Blinken and Stoltenberg during their press conferences “unequivocally said about the rejection of the main concerns that were outlined by the Russian Federation”. “Based on this, there are not so many reasons for optimism. But I still refrained from any conceptual assessments,” he remarked. According to Peskov, the documents handed over to the United States and NATO are already in Vladimir Putin’s possession, and it will take some time to analyze them. The press secretary of the president suggested not to rush to conclusions.
“There are and should always be prospects for continuing the dialogue, this is both in our interests and in the interests of the Americans. And no matter how diametrically opposed our views sometimes diverge, dialogue is always needed. But as for the substantive dialogue on the project documents that we have submitted, there are issues of a different nature. But once again, I will not get ahead of myself,” he finished.
How the situation can develop further
According to Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs, there are two fundamentally different scenarios. Moscow can say that since the main Russian requirements have not been met, there is nothing to talk about, because without solving the main problems, Russia’s security situation cannot be corrected. Then we need to deal with issues that already concern military-technical measures in response to the threats that Russia sees in NATO’s actions, he explained in an interview with RBC.
The second option is to say that something is better than nothing, continues Kortunov. Then it would be possible to talk about topics where mutual understanding is planned, including a moratorium on medium- and shorter-range missiles, the security of Russia — NATO and a corridor of reduced activity. Negotiations on arms control are also possible, the expert does not exclude.
“I expect the Russian government to reject the US and NATO responses as insufficient. Then everything depends on the decision of President Putin. I hope he will continue discussions and negotiations with the United States, NATO and other parties. In the worst case, he can order a military operation in Ukraine,” Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Military-Political Analysis at the Hudson Institute, told RBC.
The political scientist noted that the middle solution could be “open arming by the Russian government of separatists in eastern Ukraine” under the pretext of the need to balance American military supplies to Kiev. Such a step would actually make public what Russia has been doing for many years, the expert concluded.
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