ToHow Russia and China can respond to the build-up of the combat capabilities of the Japanese army, Japan and the United States have agreed to strengthen strategic military cooperation in the Far East, indicating Russia and China as the main threats. These joint projects will require a response from Moscow, experts say
A US Army soldier watches Tokyo from a helicopter
On Friday, January 13, US President Joseph Biden received Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington. The conversation at the White House was about all the main issues of cooperation, one of the main topics was the strengthening of the military alliance of the two countries.
Kishida’s first visit to the United States since taking office as Prime Minister was preceded by intensive consultations between the heads of foreign policy and military departments of the two countries. They held talks in the 2+2 format on January 12 (the US was represented by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin, Japan by Foreign Minister Yoshimashi Hayashi and Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada), after which the defense ministers met separately at the Pentagon.
The external threats that Japan and the United States intend to jointly respond to were named by the Pentagon: “China is becoming more assertive, Russia has invaded a sovereign state, and North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and their means of delivery,” and cooperation between Tokyo and Washington in these conditions remainsthe cornerstone”in ensuring the security of the Indo-Pacific region.
New division
Given the new challenges, the United States and Japan have agreed that the 12th Artillery Regiment of the U.S. Marine Corps deployed on Okinawa Island will remain in Japan and by 2025 will be reorganized into the 12th Coastal Marine Regiment (Marine Litteral Regiment, MLR). “We will equip this new unit with advanced intelligence gathering, surveillance and intelligence capabilities, as well asanti-ship weapons and vehicles that meet the needs of the current and future combat situation,” Austin explained.”These actions will strengthen deterrence in the region and allow us to protect Japan and its people more effectively.” He called the alliance’s decision to optimize American forces in Japan historic (quotes from the website of the US Department of Defense).
MLRS, consisting of 1,800–2,000 people, are able to quickly deploy small groups of marines on remote islands to defend against attacks and to support the US or allied fleets, The Japan Times points out. The commander of the US Marine Corps, David Berger, previously presented a plan for the reorganization of these forces, according to which the creation of MLR is one of his key areas. He also noted that the new units should work closely with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to prevent easy access of the Chinese army to various Pacific regions.
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Plans to create a new unit in Okinawa may cause protests by local residents who have been advocating for decades for a reduction in the American military presence on the island (now about 70% of American military facilities are located in this prefecture). In total, according to the US Department of Defense, there are about 50 thousand American servicemen in Japan. The appearance of a new unit will not increase this number, the ministry said in a statement.
The unit will receive a new NMESIS coastal missile system (Navy/Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, “The Expeditionary System of the Navy and Marine Corps to prohibit access”), which was developed by Raytheon Corporation and is designed to support the fleet with missile fire from shore. NMESIS complexes are equipped with Naval Strike Missile (NSM) anti-ship missiles of the Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense & amp; Aerospace, whose flight range reaches 185 km.
According to one of the US officials quoted by CNN, the reform of the unit in Okinawa and the creation of similar units in several other areas of the Pacific Ocean is one of the most significant adjustments in the location of the US Armed Forces in the region in recent years. It is due to the fact that the simulation of a military conflict,Conducted by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies, showed that the US military stationed in Japan, and in particular Okinawa, can play a decisive role if necessary to repel the PRC’s attack on Taiwan, providing the United States with advanced deployment and basing options.
Protection and cooperation in space
At the January talks, representatives of the two countries also concluded that an attack “in space or from space” could lead to the application of article 5 of the US-Japan security treaty, and an agreement on actions in outer space was signed. As Blinken explained, it “covers everything” from joint research to joint work on the moon landing of the first woman and a person with a non-white skin color.
The need for a commitment to jointly repel attacks from space and in space is due to growing concern about the rapid development of China’s space program and its development of hypersonic weapons, CNN explains. In the summer of 2022, China sent three astronauts to its almost completed space station.
“The space component is important for the security and prosperity of our alliance. We agree, as you have heard, that attacks in space or from space are a clear problem, and we argue that depending on the nature of these attacks, this may lead to the application of article 5 of the US-Japan security Treaty, Blinken confirmed. In accordance with this article of the agreement on mutual cooperation and security between Japan and the United States, concluded in 1960, the latter undertake to protect Japan from attacks by third parties.
US support for Japan’s record gain
In 2022, Japan updated the fundamental documents in the field of national security (National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy) and decided to double defense spending, which was the most serious strengthening of the self-defense forces since World War II. In particular, these documents specified in detail the possession of “retaliatory strike capabilities” that allow strikes against enemy military bases. Preemptive strikes are still prohibited.
As The Japan Times notes, in order to implement this decision, the Kishida government needs the support of a key ally, the United States. The American partners did not skimp on it during the negotiations. “We supported Japan’s decision to get the capabilities to resist a missile strike, informed that close coordination to obtain them will strengthen the alliance of the United States and Japan,” Austin told reporters after the meeting “2+2”.
Secretary Blinken said the U.S. welcomes Japan’s decision to double defense spending. According to Tokyo’s plan, they will grow from 1.24 to 2% of GDP by 2027. According to official data, in the 2022 fiscal year, the country plans to spend about $41.9 billion on defense (the next fiscal year will begin in April).
Attack restrictions
After the surrender of Japan in World War II, the country adopted a pacifist Constitution, according to which it is forbidden to have an army. “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation, as well as the threat or use of armed force as a means of resolving international disputes,” article 9 of the Basic Law says.
Defensive units have the official name “Self-Defense Forces”, but in many texts they are called the army. In the Global Firepower ranking, the Japanese armed forces occupy the eighth place in terms of power. Nevertheless, the Self-Defense Forces are subject to numerous restrictions, including a ban on offensive actions and preventive strikes.
The country’s sovereignty is ensured by the Security Guarantee Treaty with the United States, first signed in September 1951 and expanded and extended in 1960. Article 5 of this document states that “each party recognizes that an armed attack on any of the parties in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and security, and declares that it will take actions to repel the general danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and procedures.”».
Possible reaction of Russia
Experts interviewed by RBC are confident that the strengthening of Japan’s military power and its alliance with the United States requires retaliatory actions on the part of Moscow. “Of course, any strengthening of Japan poses a threat to Russia, given that we have a territorial dispute. We will have to fend it off. This will require financial and human resources,” Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, explained to RBC. In his opinion, Russia’s retaliatory actions will be taken in the unionwith China. “It is necessary to hold consultations with our regional partners, and probably not only with China, but also with North Korea. Some coordinated measures are quite possible so that they are more effective, so that there is a certain synergistic effect,” continues Pukhov. Nevertheless, Russia’s priority now remains a special military operation in Ukraine, and given that the risk of an attack from Japan remains low, resources should not be dispersed.
“The strengthening of Japan’s military potential certainly poses a threat to our country. Moreover, we must not forget that the United States supports Japanese claims to the Kuril Islands, does not recognize our sovereignty over the Southern Kuriles. In these conditions, strengthening the Pacific borders in the foreseeable future is a necessity,” military expert Yuri Lyamin noted. And this should be done in the coming years. He alsoHe recalled that the Japanese program is also designed to ensure that the country’s military potential will increase by 2030. In response, Russia needs to strengthen the Pacific Fleet, continue to strengthen coastal defense in the area of the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka and Primorye, Lyamin concluded.
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