And will the two countries be able to achieve the cancellation of the initiatives criticized by Moscow? The special positions of Hungary and Turkey hinder the efforts of the EU and NATO in their confrontation with Russia. What is the reason, whether Budapest and Ankara have a desire to take into account Moscow’s position and how everything can end — RBC understood
Statue of the Goddess of Europe in Brussels
On Wednesday, May 18, representatives of the EU countries will meet again in Brussels to discuss the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. But the European leaders cannot expect that it will be adopted in the proposed form in the near future: the reason for this is Hungary’s position and the fact that decisions in the union are made on the basis of consensus.
A few days earlier, Turkey stated that it could not agree with the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO.
Why Hungary continues to insist on its veto
The sixth package contains a proposal to introduce a ban on the import of crude oil from Russia in six months, as well as on the import of Russian petroleum products from 2023. Even at the initial stage of discussing these measures, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were against the oil embargo, since they are heavily dependent on energy supplies from Russia. The European Commission decided to meet them halfway and allowed Hungary and Slovakia to continue importing Russian oil until the end of 2024, and the Czech Republic until June 2024. After that, Bratislava and Prague withdrew their objections. However, Budapest is still not ready to withdraw its veto.
The position of Viktor Orban’s government was sharply criticized at the EU ministerial meeting on May 16. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters that Hungary is holding the European Union hostage. “The whole union is being held hostage by one member state, which cannot help us find consensus,” Landsbergis complained, clarifying that the EU expected that the postponement offered to Hungary would be enough for it to lift the veto.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, stood up for Budapest, pointing out that Hungary’s objections lie not in the political, but in the economic plane. He explained that the country is concerned about the problem of creating new infrastructure and purchasing new equipment for receiving and processing oil not from Russia, for which its refineries are designed. In addition, the rejection of Russian oil will mean for Budapest the need to purchase it from other suppliers at higher prices, which will affect the Hungarian economy.
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Viktor Orban previously compared the rejection of Russian oil with a “nuclear strike on the Hungarian economy”. On Kossuth Radio, he recalled that Hungary has no access to the sea, and therefore it is forced to receive oil through a pipeline. “The pipeline leading to Hungary starts in Russia… this is the reality,” he stated.
Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy carriers is really significant – 60% of oil and 85% of gas the country receives from Russia. Orban said that the country needs five years to transfer refineries and other infrastructure to the processing of raw materials from non-Russian sources. This process will require huge investments, and an increase in the cost of oil will lead to an increase in unemployment and will call into question the national program to reduce public utility costs, which is largely based on low prices for Russian energy.
The high level of inflation in the country and the budget deficit associated, among other things, with the blocking by Brussels of the euro 8 billion tranche intended for the recovery of the Hungarian economy after the pandemic (the reason was the divergence of views between Budapest and Brussels about the rule of law), carry significant risks for the country.
Against this background, on May 16, Budapest decided to raise the stakes in the game: Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that “a complete modernization of the Hungarian energy infrastructure is needed on a scale of €15 billion to €18 billion”, later clarifying that Hungary has the right to expect a new proposal from Brussels. At that time, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was in Budapest on a visit, but her negotiations with Orban ended in nothing.
According to the Euractiv portal, the item on the removal of the Hungarian veto from the sixth package of sanctions in exchange for economic preferences may be submitted to an informal EU summit, which is scheduled for the end of May. The Financial Times quotes an unnamed European official who says that the EU should make a favorable offer to the Hungarian prime minister. “Orban is very pragmatic, it’s a business,” he explained.
What is Turkey counting on in the dispute over NATO expansion
As for the expansion of NATO, Turkey’s position has become an unexpected obstacle on the way to the alliance of Sweden and Finland, says Asly Aydintashbash, senior political analyst at the European Council for International Affairs (ECFR). Ankara cannot yet give a positive conclusion about the admission of two new countries, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last Friday. “Scandinavian countries as guest houses for terrorist groups,” he cited one of the reasons.
Indeed, Ankara has repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the fact that many supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK, Turkey classifies it as a terrorist organization) have found refuge in Sweden and Finland, as well as supporters of the preacher Fethullah Gulen living in the United States (Ankara considers him the organizer of the coup attempt in 2016 year).
On May 17, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto expressed hope that the crisis will be overcome. “Turkey’s statements have changed very quickly and have become tougher in the last few days,” he said on Tuesday in an address to the Swedish parliament (quoted by Reuters).”But I am sure that with the help of constructive discussion we will solve the problem.”
As Aydintashbash notes, it is not yet clear what exactly Erdogan wants to change the position of the US Congress regarding the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey (the deal was canceled after Ankara bought and received the Russian S-400 air defense system), to get more money for the maintenance of Syrian refugees or the extradition of Turkey suspected of terrorist activities political activists.
“It is unlikely that Erdogan had one specific political goal in mind, but he will undoubtedly expect to be persuaded, persuaded and rewarded for his cooperation, as it was in the past,” the ECFR analyst concluded.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry describes relations with both northern countries in calm tones. As indicated on the agency’s website, relations with Sweden date back to the XVII century, when the Swedish king Charles XII, after the defeat in the Northern War from Russia in 1709, fled to the Ottoman Empire and ruled the kingdom from Bender and Edirne for five years. Diplomatic relations were established with Finland in 1924. The trade turnover with Sweden in 2020 amounted to about $2.6 billion, with Finland – about $1.3 billion.
The main problem is not in Finland, but in Sweden, says Al-Monitor. The kingdom has received several waves of Turkish migrants, including Kurds, as well as refugees from neighboring countries with Turkey, and the Swedish Foreign Ministry regularly criticizes Turkish military operations in Kurdish territories in Syria.
In 2019, Sweden and Finland imposed an arms embargo on Turkey due to the military operation in Syria. By this time, both countries had become leaders among the countries selling military goods to Ankara: Sweden’s military exports to Turkey in 2018 reached $30 million, Finnish exports in the same year amounted to $17 million. In recent years, both countries have refused Turkey’s extradition of immigrants suspected of terrorist activities (on Monday, the Turkish Ministry of Justice announced that Ankara had requested the extradition of six PKK members from Finland and 11 from Sweden).
“Ankara’s statements cause concern in Sweden, among other things, because they strike precisely at one of the arguments given by those who did not quite agree with joining NATO, the fear that Sweden will lose the right to vote in matters of human rights and democracy.” Paul Levin, director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, told Al-Monitor.
“Based on the statements of the Turkish authorities, it can be assumed that Turkey will continue to insist on its position, will negotiate concessions from the two Northern countries,” Amur Hajiyev, director of the Center for the Study of Modern Turkey, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted in a conversation with RBC.— Will the two countries go to concede,— this is a big question. We see that, on the contrary, there have been marches against concessions, which indicates that the process will not be easy and it will not be easy for them to give in on these issues.”
Other NATO countries do not have so many levers to influence Turkey, the expert notes, therefore, based on previous experience of conflict situations involving the republic, one can expect, he believes, that a compromise option will appear, which will eventually be accepted by all parties.
According to Hajiyev, the Turkish position does not reflect Ankara’s intention to take into account Russia’s negative position on the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO.
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