Pwhy Berlin has taken a special position on Ukraine and what it can lead to Berlin’s position on the application of sanctions to Russia in the event of an escalation of the situation on the border with Ukraine causes sharp criticism of the EU and the United States. Experts are sure that Germany may reconsider its position
What position has Germany taken on the issue of new sanctions
Berlin has been under pressure from European countries and the United States for the past week because of its insufficiently tough position in connection with a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the West has been warning about for several months. The key positions of Germany are the refusal to supply lethal weapons to Kiev and the unwillingness to take the toughest sanctions measures against Russia, including its disconnection from SWIFT and the complete abandonment of the Nord Stream-2 project.
Germany developed its point of view on the supply of weapons to Ukraine back in 2015, when the conflict in the Donbass was developing, and did not change it during the entire time of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship. During this period, the United States and Germany concluded an agreement on the Nord Stream-2, which allowed the completion of the gas pipeline without additional American sanctions. Thus, the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, who took the post of Chancellor of Germany in early December, actually continues the previous foreign policy course.
The issue of arms supplies to Ukraine was raised again before the first visit to Kiev of the new German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, which took place in mid-January. Following the talks, she confirmed that Berlin does not intend to change its position. Later, The Wall Street Journal reported that Germany is blocking Estonia’s supply of German-made artillery to Ukraine: for this, Tallinn needs to get Berlin’s permission, but the German authorities are not ready to give it.
Another “controversial” episode was the situation when British Air Force aircraft carrying anti-tank weapons intended for Kiev had to fly around the airspace of Germany. So far, Germany has agreed only on the supply of 5,000 military helmets and a fully equipped field hospital to Ukraine, as reported by German Defense Minister Kristine Lambrecht.
Germany is also trying to mitigate the sanctions that threaten Russia. According to the Euractiv portal, Berlin was the initiator of the fact that the possibility of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT was excluded from the upcoming package of restrictions. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the German authorities are also lobbying for the idea of not imposing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. Commenting on the possibility of sanctions against the “NorthernIn an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung, Scholz said that it is necessary to “act wisely” and choose the most effective measures. “No one should have any illusions that there are such measures that have no consequences for ourselves,” the German Chancellor said. The head of the country’s Economy Ministry, Robert Habek, also said on Wednesday that “if it comes to sanctions, there are none that would not affect the German economy.”
The German Chancellor’s refusal to visit Washington at the invitation of US President Joe Biden was another reason to question the strength of the allies’ transatlantic ties. According to Spiegel, the American leader proposed a short-term meeting to discuss a coordinated response to the case of Russian aggression, but there was no place for it in Scholz’s schedule. As a result , in mid-January inThe head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, went to Berlin, who brought with him extensive information about the movements of Russian troops to convince Scholz of the reality of the threat of a Russian invasion. Later, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Berlin. As a result of these visits, a meeting between Biden and Scholz was scheduled for February 7.
Which countries have most harshly criticized Berlin
The toughest position regarding the decisions taken in Berlin was taken in Kiev. In particular, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba wrote on Twitter about his disappointment with Berlin’s actions. “Recent statements by Germany about the impossibility of transferring defensive weapons to Ukraine, in particular throughgranting permission for this to third parties, the futility of returning Crimea, fluctuations in disconnecting the Russian Federation from SWIFT do not correspond to the level of our relations and the current security situation,” the minister explained. Later, the German ambassador was summoned to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, and Kuleba declared a “moment of truth” in the relations between the two countries.
The mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, even accused Germany of betrayal, and later on the pages of the Bild newspaper criticized Berlin’s decision to send military helmets to Ukraine. “Five thousand helmets” is just a joke. What will Germany send us next time as support? Pillows?Klitschko asked rhetorically.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki supported Ukraine. “I am anxiously watching the situation in Ukraine and the reaction of our neighbors from Germany to the threat from Russia. A big disappointment, among other things, is Germany’s refusal to agree to supply weapons from Estonia to a state that is preparing to defend itself from the aggressor,” he wrote on his Facebook page.
Germany’s policy towards Russia in no way meets the requirements of NATO, the EU and Germany’s partners, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said; he called Berlin’s position on blocking Estonia’s arms supplies to Ukraine “shameful”. British Foreign Minister Liz Truss also criticized Berlin’s refusal to supply arms to Kiev. But Blinken sided with Germany, who, following a visit to Berlin, said that he had no doubts about Germany’s determination to resist Russia.
However, Blinken’s assurances did not bring the desired result: The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Is Germany a reliable ally of the United States? Nein (no), and The New York Times wonders which side Germany is taking in the current conflict.
Berlin’s position may change
Yana Pulerin, an expert at the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), considers it indicative that the United States had to publicly confirm its trust in Germany on its position towards Russia. “It used to be a given,” the expert emphasized.
The former commander of US troops in Europe, now an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, General Ben Hodges, noted that Germany was Russia’s main ally, but Berlin’s inaction in the current situation undermines its authority. According to Hodges, Germany is the only European country that could influence the Kremlin. The expert believes that Berlin needs to reconsider its position on the issue of sanctions against Moscow, since at the moment Germany bears reputational costs.
The program director of the Finnish Institute of International Relations Arkady Moshes, in a conversation with RBC, noted that there is nothing unexpected in Germany’s position. “There are economic ties, a significant part of the political elites still do not see any problem in the fact that Mr. Schroeder continues to work for a Russian energy company. Germany could not take a different position, this should have been understood and taken into account in Washington, as well as its closest allies,” Moshes said.
In his opinion, Berlin’s current position should not be considered final. “In the event that Russian troops cross the border with Ukraine, the pressure on Germany will increase significantly and it will be difficult for her to adhere to the current position. But this does not mean that she will give it up,” the expert noted. According to Moshes, Berlin’s position has already begun to change, as evidenced by the decision to transfer a military hospital and a batch of helmets to Ukraine.
“As for the Nord Stream-2, it will not be possible to keep this project completely intact. Germany will have to agree to the expansion of sanctions in order not to spoil relations with its partners. Washington, having not previously agreed to sanctions against Nord Stream 2, has already taken a serious step towards Germany, now retaliatory actions are expected from it, the expert believes. Even if Berlin maintains its current stubborn position, it will not be of key importance, since the US position is of key importance,” Moshes concluded.
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