Eexperts explain the military incidents in the region by the desire of the parties to strengthen their negotiating positions, the last battles on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan were stopped only after the intervention of Russia. Experts explain the escalation of the situation by the pressure of Baku and the intention of the United States and France to become mediators in the negotiations
Why did Russia have to intervene again
At about four o’clock in the morning on July 28, the Armenian and Azerbaijani military entered into close fire contact on the border of the Gegharkunik region of Armenia, Yerevan reported. According to Baku, the escalation began even earlier – with the fact that at one o’clock in the morning the Armenian side fired at Azerbaijani positions in the neighboring Kelbajar district.
According to the Armenian defense Ministry, full-fledged military operations with offensives and counter-offensives took place on Wednesday. The battle lasted for several hours, before the announcement of a truce at ten in the morning local time (9:00 Moscow time). It took place thanks to the intervention of Russia, Yerevan and Baku said. “With the mediation of the command of the Russian peacekeeping forces, an agreement was reached on the resumption ofThe ceasefire regime on the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact”, ” the statement of the Armenian Defense Ministry says. A similar message was distributed by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry. The situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was the subject of an operational meeting of the Russian Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, his press secretary Dmitry Peskov said.
Yerevan reported three dead and four wounded. Baku reported two injured people.
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Gegharkunik region is one of the problematic areas on the new Armenian-Azerbaijani border, since before the second Karabakh war it was adjacent to the Kelbajar district of Nagorno-Karabakh controlled by Yerevan and had no border infrastructure.
In the last two months, such incidents have been happening regularly. On July 14, an Armenian serviceman was killed in a shootout near the village of Yeraskh on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijani Nakhichevan, although the situation there, apart from the incident with the downed Russian helicopter last fall, was relatively calm even during the war. On July 19, shootings resumed in this area, and since then almost a day has not passed without new ones. In May, the parties repeatedly opened fire on one of the border sections in the Armenian Syunik region. Armenia then turned to the CSTO for consultations.
The second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan lasted 44 days and ended on November 9, 2020 as a result of a trilateral agreement. It was signed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian side pledged to transfer a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, and Russian peacekeepers were introduced into the region.
In the next three years, a plan should be defined for creating a new route along the Lachin corridor, providing a link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. All economic and transport links in the region should be unblocked. Armenia has pledged to ensure the security of communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.
What can explain the increase in tension
Due to the fighting on the border, Armenian President Armen Sargsyan interrupted his visit to Tokyo and returned to Yerevan. A call was made from Baku to start negotiations on the delimitation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. “We call on Armenia to accept the new regional realities, stop military provocations and start negotiations on the delimitation of borders,” Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Leyla Abdullayeva wrote on Twitter.
Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, in an interview with Sputnik, drew attention to the fact that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has never been limited to the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh, there were other theaters of military operations on the border. The situation is complicated by the fact that the new border that appeared after the last war has not been delimited and demarcated, he continues.
Armenia actually lost the war, so the conditions are now dictated by Azerbaijan, and the latest incidents can be considered as an element of pressure from Baku, the expert believes. One of the assumptions explaining this pressure is that Azerbaijan wants to encourage Armenia to open transport corridors, which is perceived by the Armenian side as a dangerous matter, Markedonov believes.
The opinion that the incidents that have been going on for three months are part of the strategy of pressure on Armenia from Azerbaijan is shared by the Armenian political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan. The elements of this strategy are also constant instructions from Baku to solve the “Karabakh problem”, although Armenia believes that the status of the territory should be determined at negotiations in the future, as well as the retention of captured Armenians in Azerbaijan, Iskandaryan commented to RBC. In his opinion, the goal of this strategy is to unblock the transport corridor in the south of Armenia (from Azerbaijanthrough the territory of Armenia to Nakhichevan and further to Turkey), as well as the signing of a peace treaty with formulations acceptable to the Azerbaijani society. The expert does not expect that this pressure can again escalate into full-scale hostilities, but a low-intensity conflict can be maintained. Iskandaryan insists that it is wrong to call what is happening delimitation and demarcation, since usually such processes first take place at the negotiating table, where the parties discuss acceptable options, and only then the border infrastructure is built.
Some experts interviewed by RBC linked the escalation of tension with the interest of Western countries, primarily France and the United States, in returning to the negotiation process, in which Russia is now the main mediator. After the last parliamentary elections in Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan renewed his mandate, but unexpectedly for many, instead of implementing agreements with Azerbaijan and Russia, he toughened his position. This happened against the background of activationAccording to Stanislav Pritchin, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the IMEMO RAS, Paris and Washington, which could return to the number of active mediators with a further increase in tension. The support of the United States and France helped Pashinyan to strengthen his negotiating positions. According to Pritchin, Azerbaijan is now less interested in escalating tensions, and it is in its interests to implement the provisions on unblocking transport corridors.
Azerbaijani political scientist, expert of the international discussion club “Valdai” Farhad Mammadov noted that in the first months the process of determining the border was carried out in a regular mode, and the most difficult sections near the city of Gafan (Kapan in the Armenian version) were determined in an agreed manner, but as the deadline for the implementation of the trilateral agreements approached, the internal political crisis was growing in Armenia, which lasted until the June parliamentary elections. During this time, the expert continues, they have developed their own attitude to the situation.the US administration and France, now their goal is to exclude Russia’s monopoly on the settlement of the conflict and restore its active role in this process. Mammadov’s opinion is confirmed by the fact that the maps of the minefields, in exchange for which Baku was ready to return several prisoners to Armenia, were handed over by Yerevan in June through the mediation of the US State Department and the government of Georgia, and not by Russia, and the EU announced the allocation of 2.6 billion euros to Yerevan shortly after the elections in Armenia.
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